Players I Love 2017 #1: Charlie Blackmon

It’s gotta be hard to be a good baseball player in Colorado.

For a second, that seems like it may be a little bit backwards, but think about all of the talent that has come from the Rockies organization in the last ten years or so: Matt Holliday, Troy Tulowitzki, Carlos Gonzalez, and Nolan Arenado to name a few. All toolsy players with a fair amount of power, for sure.

However, wouldn’t it be annoying to hear that all of your production is just a matter of the ballpark you play half of your games at?

That’s the same thing as your girlfriend telling you that the sex is better during the week than on the weekends, or your boss saying you work more efficiently and don’t sound like as much of an idiot during the morning as opposed to the afternoon.

Okay, maybe not the exact same thing, but you get the point. That’s what it is like playing in Colorado, and, for fantasy purposes, exactly the kind of thing you need to look into when poking around the players in the Rockies organization.

Enter Charlie Blackmon, center fielder for the Colorado Rockies.

As part of my first installment of my “Players I Love 2017” collection here on fantasyisntfun.com, I wanted to take a look at Charlie Blackmon, Colorado’s toolsy center fielder. Blackmon burst onto the scene during a cup of coffee with the Rockies in late 2013, finishing the year with a .309 batting average and a .803 OPS in 82 games with the Rockies (246 at-bats.) Promising statistics, for sure. He didn’t flash too much power during his age-26 season back then, posting only 6 home runs and 2 triples, however his high peripheral statistics combined with his draft pedigree gave Rockies fans yet another upcoming player to feel good about.

2014 was more of the same for Blackmon. He appeared in 154 games for the Rockies and posted a .288/.335/.440 line to go with a .775 OPS. Some regression, sure, but he added to his power numbers that year by improving in doubles, home runs and triples while swiping 28 bags and posting 27 doubles. It was the type of sophomore improvement that one would expect from the former 2^nd-round pick. Blackmon displayed an intriguing blend of size, speed, and power that gave Rockies fans something to look forward to yet again. 2015 saw another big leap in stolen bases, triples, runs and walks, but saw some dips in the power department. It seemed like while trying to add more pieces to his game, he lost sight of what eventually got him to the show: his hitting for both average and power. He saw a reduction in batting average, runs batted in, and home runs. In hindsight, that may have been the best thing for him once we saw what he put together in 2015.

Year	TM	G	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2011	COL	27	98	25	1	0	1	8	9	3	8	5	1	.255	.277	.296	.573
2012	COL	42	113	32	8	0	2	9	15	4	17	1	2	.283	.325	.407	.732
2013	COL	82	246	76	17	2	6	22	35	7	49	7	0	.309	.336	.467	.803
2014	COL	154	593	171	27	3	19	72	82	31	96	28	10	.288	.335	.440	.775
2015	COL	157	614	176	31	9	17	58	93	46	112	43	13	.287	.347	.450	.797
2016	COL	143	578	187	35	5	29	82	111	43	102	17	9	.324	.381	.552	.933
Career Totals:		605	2242	667	119	19	74	251	345	134	384	101	35	.298	.348	.467	.814

2016 will go down as Blackmon’s breakout year.  He posted a career-best batting average of .324, up almost .50 from the year before, and a way-above-average .933 OPS. He smashed 29 home runs, knocked in 82 runs, walked in 7% of his plate appearances, and scored 111 runs from higher-up in the Colorado lineup. Yes, 2016 was the year that Blackmon showed off every tool, winning his first Silver Slugger award. As a result, his ADP sits at #15 overall early this year in standard 10-category drafts.  Despite playing half of his games on the road and away from the friendly confines of Coors Field. Blackmon looks like a mega-value at that ADP, even as high as it is.

And that’s not even taking into account his road splits.

Obviously, the knock on every Rockies player is that they play better at home. Not the case for Blackmon. In fact, the case can be made that he’s a little bit better on the road. Playing in the (slightly easier) National League, here are Blackmon’s 2016 road splits:

2016 SPLITS	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	AVG
Away	300	50	94	20	2	17	35	19	.313

Still pretty awesome. A great average, some good power numbers, and just as likely to draw a walk away from home as he is at home. Sporting a .926 OPS, Blackmon is one of the exceptions to the fabled “Coors Field myth.” This guy does it all, and is one of my top outfielders in 2017.

So, when do we reach for Blackmon? It’s hard to say. As of this writing on February 21^st, 2017, Blackmon is currently being selected after Mike Trout, Mookie Betts, Bryce Harper, and Trea Turner. Personally, I’d take him ahead of Trea Turner. Turner, a June call-up, definitely gave baseball fans and particularly Nationals fans a lot to be excited about. I love his long-term upside, but I think there is a lot left for him to prove. He’s young and it remains to be seen how he adjusts to a full off-season in the Major Leagues. The book could be out on him and I don’t think he is worth that high of a pick. Another thing to note is that Turner is being drafted as if he will 100% capture his immense upside, which is no guarantee. We know we are getting stud players with Mike Trout, Mookie Betts, and Bryce Harper; each of these players has AL and NL MVP potential every year. However, Turner ahead of Blackmon gives me pause. Blackmon plays in the most hitter-friendly ballpark known to man, has flashed all five tools consistently since becoming a full time player in the majors, and last but not least:

Rockies manager Bud Black wants Charlie Blackmon to run more this season.

Blackmon fell back to 17 stolen bases in 2016 after swiping 43 in 2015, with Black indicating that the drop was due in part to the outfielder’s legs not feeling 100 percent. “Charlie is dangerous in (the batter’s) box and became a real threat, each and every time he got in the box or when he got on first base (in 2015),” Black said. “We’ve got to get back to that. We’ve talked about that a little bit. Charlie was a little bit banged up last year. He was able to play, but I don’t think his legs felt great.” Blackmon dealt with separate toe issues on two occasions in 2016, so perhaps that’s what Black is referring to. Regardless, it’s encouraging from a fantasy perspective to hear that Blackmon might be in line to bounce back from a steals standpoint in 2017.

• Rotoworld

He gets to run more.

I don’t think a final slash line of .320/.385/.455/.840 with 35 home runs, 198 hits, 62 walks, and 30 stolen bases is out of the question. I actually think a few of those numbers are his floor, and that it is also unrealistic to expect Trea Turner to hit his ceiling (which is where he is being drafted.) The key to winning drafts is to get value for players, which essentially means take them at slots where their production will mean they outperformed players selected higher. I believe this is the case with Blackmon. I’d take him as the #4 outfielder off the board, behind Mike Trout, Mookie Betts, and Bryce Harper but far ahead of guys like Trea Turner, Starling Marte, George Springer, Ryan Braun, A.J. Pollock, and Mike Stanton.